LONG ISLAND, NY – Republicans displayed remarkable potency on Long Island, pulling off a series of impressive wins — a stark contrast to Democrat advances elsewhere on November’s election night. Characterized by major Democratic triumphs from the Kentucky governor’s race to the preservation of abortion rights in Ohio, Long Island emerged as a political anomaly.
The Republican Party successfully flipped the Suffolk County executive office which had been firmly gripped in Democratic hands for over two decades. This marks a notable addition to the GOP’s victories list, following several wins in the prior November.
Representative Nick Langworthy, once at the helm of the state’s Republican Party, lauded the GOP performance in Nassau and Suffolk Counties as nothing short of “superhuman”. On the other hand, Democrat Tom DiNapoli, who serves as state comptroller and is a Long Island native, expressed concerns about the surprising Republican wins. DiNapoli admitted, “The Republicans did exceedingly well, probably beyond anybody’s expectations. So that’s a concern, I think, as we head into next year”.
The GOP’s strides in Long Island stand at odds with the national trend of Democrats making remarkable progress in America’s suburbs, a shift that began following the election of the erstwhile President Donald Trump seven years ago. Long island is clearly far from becoming another suburban Democratic stronghold.
Lawrence Levy, the executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University and a political analyst, proposes several factors supporting this deviation on Long Island. Levy identified gerrymandered legislative districts at the county level, robust GOP organizations in Nassau and Suffolk Counties, and a slew of state laws passed by Democrats in Albany — particularly the bail reform — as contributing to a voter backlash in these suburban areas.
Levy asserts that these conditions combined with the GOP’s strategic use of scare tactics around crime in low-crime communities, created a perfect storm for Republican gains.
It is important to note that Long Island hosts three Congressional swing districts, which in the last elections saw President Joe Biden’s victory before they flipped to GOP control in 2022. The incumbents in these seats: Nick LaLota, George Santos, and Anthony D’Esposito, are all Republicans, adding to the GOP’s recent inroads in the Hudson Valley.
According to Langworthy, the imprints of this week’s results might extend to 2024. Their incumbents have performed well and are set to run on the same message, he affirms.
However, Brooklyn’s Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a leading House Democrat, counters this narrative. He particularly dismisses the significance of the Suffolk County results, reminding that the area had a Republican, Lee Zeldin, as its representative for years. Jeffries views the idea that this result could forecast GOP’s prospects in November 2024, as laughable.
Levy cautions both sides against complacency. He alerts Republicans to the long-term suburban trends that favor Democrats and warns Democrats to be judicious before assuming that higher voter turnout, commonly seen during presidential elections, would inherently favor them.
In a season of Democratic triumphs elsewhere, Long Island’s Republican resurgence proves intriguing, triggering speculations about the political dynamics in the 2024 elections. Whether these results mark an isolated incident or provide a blueprint for future GOP strategies remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain, as election night unfolded, Long Island boldly signaled a counter-narrative to the broader political landscape.
